Prace Geograficzne, z. 107

Redaktor: Obrębska-Starkel B.
Rok wydania: 2000
Język publikacji: angielski

ISSN 1644-3586

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Preface
Autor: Barbara Obrębka-Starkel
Strony: 9-10
Preface
Autor: Antoni Tokarczuk
Strony: 13-18
Preface
Autor: Franciszek Ziejka
Strony: 19-22
The long-term temperature time-series of Central Belgium (1767-1999)
Autor: Gaston R. Demarée, Tania Verhoeve, Pieter-Jan Lachaert, Erik Thoen
Strony: 41-48
Summary - read more..
The paper describes in a concise way the sources of historical climatology. It discusses further the early instrumental meteorological observations in Belgium, among them, those records which were thereupon used in the European Union's IMPROVE project to produce the daily Central Belgian Temperature (1767-1999) time-series. This series enables to better assess the climatic variability over a 230-year time span in Belgium.
A matter of equity
Autor: Lawrence C. Nkemdirim
Strony: 49-54
Summary - read more..
Climate is Earth's most valuable resource. It should be protected for future generations to the extent that humans are capable. Equity demands both a fair sharing of the resource as well as a fair sharing of the responsibility for sustaining it. Climate change impacts are and will be unequally distributed. Developing countries which are synonymous with the tropics will be at least three times more vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change than developed countries. In the short term, most of the benefits of global warming will be reaped in the middle latitudes. The Framework Convention on Climate Change may never be realised unless the equity problem is resolved.
Heavy rains and floods in Europe during last millennium
Autor: Leszek Starkel
Strony: 55-62
Summary - read more..
The information on heavy rains and floods during the last millennium are based on records of various qualitative and quantitative precision starting from direct measurements to historical written sources and proxy data based on sediments, organic remains and relief features. Among these extremes there were distinguished heavy downpours, continuous rains, rainy seasons and rapid snowmelts. The author describes the course of phases with higher and lower frequency of extreme rains and floods in Europe, regionally differentiated. The phase of the Little Ice Age is well expressed throughout the Europe, although the particular events were never simultaneous. Finally follows the discussion on causes of these variabilities in space and time.
Chronology of strong wind events in the Czech Lands during the 16th-19th centuries
Autor: Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný
Strony: 65-70
Summary - read more..
Problems of measuring strong winds are analysed. The efficiency of historical written reports of strong winds and their impacts in the pre-instrumental period are discussed. The chronology of strong winds with damage in the Czech Lands from the 16th to the 19th centuries is presented with the division into gales on the one hand and tornadoes and squalls on the other hand. Cases of gales of the century are described.
Utilisation of the Louny economic sources for the reconstruction of winter temperature patterns in 1518-1621
Autor: Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Kotyza
Strony: 71-78
Summary - read more..
The books of accounts of the town of Louny (north-west Bohemia) contain information about Saturday's payments of wages for work in the preceding week, some of which may be utilised as proxies of winter temperature patterns (such as cutting of ice at the mills, lining of water pipes with manure). By means of these data series of weighted temperature indices are compiled for the period 1518-1621. On the basis of calibration relations between the measured temperature anomalies and weighted temperature indices in the reference period 1901-1960, a reconstruction of winter air temperatures is carried out by two different methods for the secular station Prague-Klementinum in the period 1518-1621. The obtained results are compared with series of temperature indices of Germany, Switzerland and the series Ice Winter Index for the western Baltic.
Extreme climatic phenomena over the Russian plain during the medieval warming and the Little Ice age according to documentary records
Autor: Alexander Krenke, Margarita Chernavskaya
Strony: 79-84
Summary - read more..
More than 1300 evidences on extreme climatic phenomena mentioned in the narrative sources over the Russian plain for the period 970-1850 have been analysed. Classification of these phenomena with the evaluation of the spatial and temporal scales has been made. Changes in frequency of extremes between the Medieval Warm Epoch and the Little Ice Age as well as the interconnection of different phenomena extremes has been studied. A hypothesis on extremes frequency changes under the possible climate warming is suggested.
Storm surges, high tides and storms as extreme weather events, their impact on the coastal zone of the North Sea and the human response, 1350 to 2000
Autor: Adriaan M.J. de Kraker
Strony: 85-100
Summary - read more..
Focusing on documentary sources, this paper shows that no overall picture of storm surges, storms and high tides in the North Sea area for the period of 1350 to 2000 has been reconstructed . Five separate storm surges are being examined in more detail from which it appears that no clear pattern in geographical distribution nor on a time scale can be distinguished. Furthermore human response is quite different pro storm surge and pro region. Results of new research from historical evidence for the south western coast of the North Sea area from the 17th and 18th centuries show how the time series of storm surges, storms and high tides can be completed. Finally, it is considered necessary to extend this kind of research for the entire North Sea area covering the period under consideration in order to connect the results to other kinds of time series in the same area.
Climate of the last millennium in eastern North America and impacts on the vegetation
Autor: Konrad Gajewski
Strony: 101-106
Summary - read more..
The Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period and similar century-scale climate fluctuations had significant impacts on the vegetation of eastern and northern North America. These can be detected by high-resolution pollen diagrams, especially if precise dating is provided by laminated sediments. A series of high-resolution pollen diagrams from the Great Lakes eastward show alternating cool and warm periods during the past millennium. Quantitative calibration of these curves suggests differences in mean temperature of 0.5oC. Further north, at treeline in north-western Quebec, several high-resolution pollen diagrams also show impacts of the Little Ice Age on spruce populations. These results indicate that vegetation responds rapidly to century-scale climate changes and that these can be determined by high-resolution analyses of pollen in lake sediments, either from laminated or non-laminated sediments.
Archival climate history survey in the Central Andes (Potosi, 16th-17th centuries)
Autor: Alain Gioda, María del Rosario Prieto, Ana Forenza
Strony: 107-112
Summary - read more..
Proxy climatic data of the Spanish colonization have been collected in Bolivia (mainly in the "Archivo Nacional" located in Sucre, previously Charcas or La Plata), and Spain ("Archivo General de Indias" in Seville). The aim was to reconstruct all the rainy seasons in Potosi from 1585. The archival chronology was based on the large quantity of documents about Potosi, one of the biggest and the richest city of the world during the 16th and the 17th centuries. Potosi's location (4000 m a.s.l.) in an arid and extreme environment is an advantage to study climatic variations. Further, water-power was used to move the silver metallurgy engines from 1574-77, years of the beginning of work on the lake system.
The transformation of thermal descriptive characteristics in Cracow from 16th century into the quantitative evaluation
Autor: Danuta Limanówka
Strony: 113-118
Summary - read more..
The discovered records document the first systematic weather observations on the territory of today's Poland, in Cracow. The meteorological observations from the period of 1502-1540 are the most precious information in the file as they were made by the one observer - Marcin Biem of Olkusz. The notes were made regularly and they concerned a long historical period.
Selected historical floods in Moravia in the pre-instrumental era in Central-European context
Autor: Jan Munzar
Strony: 119-126
Summary - read more..
It appeared after the disastrous floods in Moravia and Silesia in July 1997 that there are no data available from this eastern part of the Czech Republic, which would facilitate a comparison with flood events before 1900. A research was therefore started to study hydrometeorological extremes occurring in the Morava River basin from the 16th to the 19th centuries. This period of time is briefly characterized by summer and winter floods that occurred in selected five years and which are subjected to a preliminary assessment in the supra-regional context.
Climate analysis based on Norwegian proxy data
Autor: Řyvind Nordli
Strony: 127-130
Summary - read more..
Within the NORPAST project various proxy data sources are put together in order to reconstruct climate during the whole Holocene. Farmers' diaries contain direct weather descriptions which may be classified in an index system, in which written weather information is shown converted to a relative scale, which may be related directly to temperature by regression analysis. Four independent diaries led to reconstructions of 19th century temperature series that showed almost the same increasing trend towards the climate optimum of the 1930s. During the 19th century and the first two decades of the 20th century, the temperature has increased by 1oC. This is also in agreement with a tree-ring reconstruction from Austlandet. However, around 1770 a discrepancy between the reconstructions occurs. The reconstruction based on tree-rings reveals much higher temperatures than those based on diaries.
Climatic variation in the last millennium in Poland: 13C peat profiles
Autor: Grzegorz Skrzypek, Mariusz O. Jędrysek
Strony: 131-136
Summary - read more..
Three carbon isotope profiles from the raised Polish peat bogs Zieleniec, Szrenica, and Suche Bagno, representing the last Millennium have been analysed. 13C in the peat profiles vary from -31 to -22‰. Isotopic composition and directions of 13C variations in the profiles in the same age horizons were similar. It has been suggested that variation in 13C of peat is dominantly governed by variations in temperature of vegetation of Sphagnum Sp. composing given strata. It has been shown also, that increase in the vegetation temperature by 1oC results in decrease in 13C value by about -0.6‰ (we have expressed this as -0.6Fq). Based on 13C calibration, the following sequence in the climate variations between 600 and 1950 BP in Poland has been proposed: about 600-1050 AD cold period, 1050-1200 AD very cold period, 1200-1550 AD very warm period - Little Climatic Optimum, 1550-1820 AD very cold period - Little Ice Age, 1830-1960 AD warm moderate period - Global Climatic Warming.
The last millennium climate change in Northern Poland derived from well temperature profiles, tree-rings and instrumental data
Autor: Gabriel Wójcik, Jacek Majorowicz, Kazimierz Marciniak, Rajmund Przybylak, Jan Šafanda, Andrzej Zielski
Strony: 137-148
Summary - read more..
In order to reconstruct the air temperature variations in Northern Poland for the last millennium observational and proxy (tree-ring widths) data were used. For the first time the ground surface temperature (GST) for Northern Poland was reconstructed based on geothermal data (well temperature profiles). A general warming trend is observed for both the GSTH (GST Histories) derived from geothermal data and instrumental data, in particular, for the last 200 years.
Climate variability in Bulgaria during the 20th century
Autor: Vesselin Alexandrov
Strony: 151-156
Summary - read more..
Climate variability and trends in Bulgaria during 20th century (1901-1997) were studied. Generally, there is no significant overall trend of mean annual air temperature in Bulgaria for that century. Bulgaria has experienced several drought episodes during the 20th century, most notably in the 1930s, 1940s and 1980s due to precipitation reductions. The variations of mean annual precipitation in Bulgaria showed a decreasing overall trend. A decreasing trend in precipitation during the period from April to September from the end of 1970s was found. There is a strong tendency to precipitation deficit of about 10% during the crop growing season above both 5o and 10oC.
The role of atmospheric circulation in the development of the long-term thunderstorm occurrence variability in Poland during 1949-1998
Autor: Zuzanna Bielec
Strony: 157-164
Summary - read more..
The paper attempts to assess an impact of atmospheric circulation on the variability of days with thunderstorm occurrence in Poland, both in space and time. The analysis has been based on data recorded at 56 Polish meteorological stations during 1949-1998. Other sources used in the project included the typology of atmospheric circulation by B. Osuchowska-Klein and synoptic maps from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The results indicate that the conditions most conductive to the development of thunderstorms include southern advection of air masses related to cyclonic situations and, in the south of the country, also eastern-sector advection. The variability of circulation types, however, was not found to have any significant impact on the long-term changes in the occurrence of days with thunderstorms.
Changes of convective weather found in Katowice (1966-1996)
Autor: Grażyna Bil
Strony: 165-172
Summary - read more..
In this paper the convective weather was defined on the basis of the relationship between the temperature gradient, that was measured in Sosnowiec, in about 100 m air layer, the value of temperature increase within 3 hours and type of clouds. The changes of convective weather were investigated throughout the year and during the day, and they were interpreted as a result of circulation variability and the human influences. The increasing trend of the anticyclonic situations (favourable of convection), and development of Katowice (representing the biggest agglomeration in Poland), cause the rise of considered weather type.
Air temperature fluctuation in the Czech Republic in the period 1961-1999
Autor: Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Štěpánek, Vít Květoň
Strony: 173-178
Summary - read more..
For 95 meteorological stations relative homogeneity of monthly series of air temperature is tested in the period 1961-1999. From 93 homogenised series mean temperature series for the Czech Republic is calculated by the method of arithmetic mean and by the method of grids. It exhibits statistically significant rising linear trends for January, May, July, August, seasons (with the exception of autumn) and the year. The fluctuation of the Czech temperature series is compared to the series of the Northern Hemisphere. The effect of possible forcing (solar factor, volcanic activity, equivalent CO2, NAOI) on its fluctuation is evaluated by means of the model of multivariate linear regression.
Analysis of climate changes in cloudiness and surface air temperature for 1967-1995 in Russia
Autor: Mikhail Budyko, Irina Baikova, Nina Yefimova, Larissa Strokina
Strony: 179-184
Summary - read more..
The analysis of changing climate elements for the period 1967-1995 in Russia allows to reveal special features of long-term variations of the surface air temperature and cloud cover in the night and the day hours for winter and summer in 8 regions over the territory of Russia. Obtained results allowed to discover the total and low-level cloudiness changes in the middle of night and day and to reveal the agreement of long-term variations of cloudiness with air temperature changes and to show atypical features and peculiarities of cloud daily cycle changes in all seasons during the years 1967-1995. A joint analysis of long-term variations in air temperature, cloudiness and frequency of different cloud genera allows to better understand physical processes accompanying the current climate change.
Beginnings of instrumental meteorological observations in Slovenia
Autor: Tanja Cegnar, Metka Roethel Kovač
Strony: 185-190
Summary - read more..
An overview of the history of systematic instrumental measurements of meteorological parameters in Slovenia is presented. Instrumental period of meteorological observations in Slovenia can be divided in three sub-periods. The first official meteorological observing station on the ethnically Slovenian territory was established in Trst (Trieste) in 1779 (Pučnik 1980). The second important period of instrumental measurements of meteorological parameters started after the First World War, during this period in Ljubljana Zavod za meteorologijo in geodinamiko (Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics) was established in the frame of University (Trontelj 2000). After the Second World War the Hydrometeorological Institute was established, which is operating till nowadays; this is the third period. Most of the data are taken from the archive of Hydrometeorological Institute of Slovenia, but also some other sources were taken into account.
Quasi-monthly Air Temperature cyclicity in the lower stratosphere
Autor: Jan Degirmendžić
Strony: 191-198
Summary - read more..
By means of Blackman-Tukey spectral method geographical regions of distinct quasi-monthly temperature cycle were delimited in the stratosphere. No significant relation between 28-day thermal cycle and similar periodicity of Coronal Index was detected. However marked increase in amplitude of synodical cycle of coronal activity is observed 10-12 days before key event, i.e. the rise in corresponding periodicity of temperature in the stratosphere.
Climate changes during the 20th century in Hungary
Autor: Peter Domonkos, Judit Zoboki
Strony: 199-206
Summary - read more..
This paper analyses trends and fluctuations in Hungarian temperature and precipitation data series. 98-year long data series of 14 observing stations are used. Statistical significance of systematic changes are controlled by t-probe and Mann-Kendall test. While changes in mean temperatures are small, notable decrease can be recognised in precipitation amounts particularly in transitional seasons, and in the second half of the century in winter. Changes in frequencies of extreme daily mean temperatures are also investigated. Amplitudes of their long term fluctuations are much higher than those of monthly mean temperatures.
Air temperature and cloudiness at Śnieżka between 1901 and 1998
Autor: Maria Dubicka, Bronisław Głowicki
Strony: 207-212
Summary - read more..
Some features and tendencies existing in temporal variations of air temperature and cloudiness seasonal values have been determined in long series of observation data at the highest summit of the Sudetes. Trends of seasonal values of both elements appeared to be mostly positive but statistically insignificant at a level of significance 0.05. The air temperature of winter and summer culminated in the last decade 1989-1998. Statistical co-variability analysis of temperature and cloudiness time-series showed the existence of significant dependence between these variables in summer season only (negative correlation).
An attempt of reconstruction of nival conditions on the turn of the 19th century in Cracow and Zakopane
Autor: Małgorzata Falarz
Strony: 213-222
Summary - read more..
The attempt of reconstruction of seasonal snow cover data in Cracow and Zakopane on the turn of the 19th century based on climatic data was made by using the multiple regression method. The results appear to be more successful for the station located at lower altitude (Cracow). The reconstructed data obtained for Zakopane appear to be overestimated for the number of snow cover days and sum of daily snow cover thickness. Thus, they have been excluded from further calculations. An analysis of long-term snow cover variability in Cracow (1895/96-1998/99) and Zakopane (1914/15-1998/99) has shown no statistically significant trends for characteristics under investigation.
Greenhouse effect and global changes of climate (on the example of the Republic of Armenia (RA))
Autor: Ashot Volodia Khoetsian
Strony: 223-228
Summary - read more..
A number of global changes in environment have been observed at the end of the 20th century. Among these changes is the growth of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, which brings about the intensification of natural greenhouse effect and disturbance of natural radiation balance of atmosphere and the Earth. Being situated in the dry sector of subtropical zone Armenia is mostly affected by greenhouse effect. As a result of it, tendency to temperature increase and precipitation amount decrease is observed in the country, Droughts, hot dry winds have become frequent, dry lands have enlarged, arid mountainous landscapes have migrated upwards etc.
Meteorological instruments in the Astronomical Observatory of Jagiellonian University in 18th and 19th century
Autor: Leszek Kowanetz, Janina Trepińska
Strony: 229-234
Summary - read more..
The paper presents the short description of the meteorological instruments used at the station of Jagiellonian University and the photos of the old instruments in use by astronomers during 18th and 19th century in Cracow's Astronomical Observatory. The meteorological observations were carried out at the same place from 1792 and therefore we have the homogenous series of measurements of air temperature and air pressure. A very accurate description of the instruments has been written by the hand of Professor Jan Śniadecki in the first weather diary in 1792. The most interesting instruments: the mercury thermometer, the Fortin's mercury barometer, the thermometer by Jürgensen with three scales and the barograph, thermograph and anemograph were purchased in the early part of 19th century. Almost all instruments are at the Museum of Jagiellonian University to this day.
Vegetation and climate in Poland in the 1990s: Variations of the normalised difference vegetation index, air temperature, sunshine and precipitation
Autor: Krzysztof Kożuchowski, Elwira Żmudzka
Strony: 235-242
Summary - read more..
Climatic variation of the growing seasons during the 1990s was examined using the 10-day values of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) for five regions in Poland. In order to compare the NDVI values with climatic conditions, multiple correlation coefficients and regression equations for the 10-day means of NDVI on the one hand, and temperature, precipitation, and sunshine anomalies on the other, in the period between April and September, were calculated. The mean temperatures and the duration of the growing seasons in the 1990s were compared to those for the period between 1951 and 1990.
Long-term observation of cloud cover in Cracow (1792-1999)
Autor: Dorota Matuszko
Strony: 243-250
Summary - read more..
Cracow's series of nephological observations is unique in European scale. Both the place of observations and the methods of estimating the cloudiness degree and defining the cloud genera have not changed significantly for about one hundred years. The paper presents the data base about the cloudiness in Cracow together with the possibilities of its application in both local and global scale.
Air temperature in the Canadian Arctic in the mid-nineteenth century based on data from expeditions
Autor: Rajmund Przybylak
Strony: 251-258
Summary - read more..
The paper presents the first results of the project aimed at collecting and analysing early instrumental records from the Arctic, from the period 1846-1854. Air temperature is characterized for the Canadian Arctic using data from various expeditions and a comparison with the present-day climate is also made.
"Share" of temperature of particular months in the annual temperature in Poznań in the period 1848-1997
Autor: Jan Tamulewicz
Strony: 259-266
Summary - read more..
The relationships between annual temperature and temperature of particular months in Poznań in the period 1848-1997 are presented. Significance of this relationship was examined with the calculation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient. Within a year the average percentage "share" of monthly values of temperature changes from 1.6% in April and October to 12.9% in July.
Climatic change and the Nordic countries, especially in the light of mean temperatures for the normal periods 1931-60 and 1961-90
Autor: Sakari Tuhkanen
Strony: 267-280
Summary - read more..
All climatic models of climatic changes and scenarios suggest more pronounced warming at high latitudes, especially in winter, than at the global level, but no reliable signs of warming are discernable in northwestern Europe, least of all in its northern parts and in winter. In this article the mean temperatures during the normal periods 1931-60 and 1961-1990 are compared. The former period was warmer than the latter practically everywhere in the Nordic countries, and the negative difference was especially marked in Lapland (-0,8oC). However, there are differences between the seasons. Furthermore, long temperature time-series from some Nordic meteorological stations are examined. When the series are corrected, the apparent rise in temperature during the 20th century up to today becomes very small, in some cases non-existent.
Pluvial conditions in Cracow at the end of the Little Ice Age
Autor: Robert Twardosz
Strony: 281-288
Summary - read more..
The article presents an analysis of the variability of pluvial conditions in Cracow at the end of the Little Ice Age, based on the number of days with precipitation and precipitation totals. Monthly and yearly data were used from the period 1812-1998. The following statistical characteristics of the precipitation were calculated: variability coefficients, standard deviations, mean values. The study showed the dissimilarity of pluvial conditions in the early nineteenth century as compared to later periods, which showed a high interannual variability of precipitation, and a higher intensity of extreme precipitation events.
Long-term atmospheric rainfall fluctuation in Northern Moravia (Czech Republic) 1881-1980
Autor: Miroslav Vysoudil
Strony: 289-296
Summary - read more..
The study deals with the long-term atmospheric rainfall fluctuation in Northern Moravia (Czech Republic) in the period 1881-1980. Long-term fluctuation is described from the both temporal and spatial aspects on the base of series of spatial precipitation sums. Northern Moravia represents a territory with considerable vertical variations of the relief. A large part of this territory is used for intensive agricultural production. Mostly wooded highlands and mountains are important water reservoirs. Therefore the knowledge of characteristics of rainfall fluctuation is very important. The paper is a contribution to the solution of problem on which has been focused the attention of many Czech, Slovak and foreign authors during the past several decades.
Comparison of cloudiness types for neighbouring airports
Autor: Zygmunt Wilczek
Strony: 297-304
Summary - read more..
The foundation and practical application of cloudiness types classification for aviation has been submitted in this paper. Significant differentiation of the frequency of hours with particular cloudiness types at both meteorological stations has been noticed. The most similar courses of analysed factors were found for aviation type of cloudiness connected with hard and minimum flying atmospheric conditions. The comparison of daily courses of cloudiness types for neighbouring airports has indicated significant conformity for some types (H, ML, MX, Z0) and almost complete lack of conformity for others (WT, ZL, ZH).
The problem of determination of the boundary line for climatological regions in Lower Silesia
Autor: Joanna Bac-Bronowicz
Strony: 307-314
Summary - read more..
The article presents the analysis of the course of the boundaries between climatological regions of Lower-Silesian Region described by some authors. Factors influencing the spatial regional diversification and possibilities of determining climatological similarities between minor units of reference are also discussed.
Climate change projections as input for the assessment of impacts on regional systems
Autor: Roman Corobov
Strony: 315-324
Summary - read more..
Some approaches to transform the results of GCM experiments, stored at IPCC Data Distribution Centre, for its more complete using in the impacts assessment are examined. The results of statistical transformation of the basic climatic variables' projections into parameters of aridity, agroclimate as well as of forest habitats climate are adduced. It is shown that close collaboration is necessary between climate researchers and climate impact researchers to develop a required performance profile of climate change modeling.
Spatial presentation of regional climate change information
Autor: Roman Corobov, Alla Nicolenco
Strony: 325-332
Summary - read more..
The method to calculate the climate change projections in any point of territory is proposed. The procedure is based on statistically significant dependence of the climatic variable changes on geographical latitude and enables to automate their digital mapping. Two possible applications of the method are demonstrated: (1) digital mapping of spatial distribution of the likely future values of key climatic variables; (2) mapping of the projected parameters of applied climatology.
Development of a downscaling model for estimation of an 'artificial ice core' derived from large scale parameters of a 1000 year GCM run
Autor: Traute Crüger, Hans von Storch
Strony: 333-338
Summary - read more..
Object of our work is the creation of 'artificial ice cores' by means of GCM data. Regression models for 3 Greenland ice core accumulation rates are presented which use the first 5 EOF time series of seasonal mean large scale 500 hPa stream function fields as predictors. The fitting data are the monthly NCEP Reanalysis data and real yearly ice accumulation time series from 1948 until 1992. The explained variance of the estimated ice accumulation lies between 56% and 74%. The regression model has been applied to a 1000 year coupled ocean/atmosphere control run (ECHAM4/HOPE) to estimate accumulation. The spectra of the real and the estimated accumulation are nearly 'white'. For the estimated accumulation there is a reduction of variance.
The Mediterranean oscillation in winter
Autor: Annick Douguédroit
Strony: 339-344
Summary - read more..
A Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) has been assessed in the pressure at the sea level (SLP) and at the 500 hPa geopotential height at the seasonal time-scale. Winter only is studied here. When the SLP (respectively the 500 hPa height) is higher (respectively lower) than the series average in the north and the west of the Mediterranean, it is close to the average in the east and the south-east. The MO corresponds to the first winter unrotated component of Principal Component Analyses on SLP and 500 hPa height. Its pattern has a single pole. Composites show the oscillation in the pressure and at the geopotential height previously mentioned. The component scores can be used as two MO indices which are well correlated between each other and with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).
New generation meteorological satellites - potential application for climatological research
Autor: Izabela Dyras, Bożena Łapeta
Strony: 345-350
Summary - read more..
Satellite data have been widely used in climatological research as a significant addition to ground measurements network. The launch of the polar orbiting satellite NOAA-15 (in 1998) from the new series NOAA K,L,M has enhanced the quality of measurements especially in the microwave spectral region. The long term programs were established for two satellite systems: MSG and METOP. The aim of this paper is to convey the general information concerning new satellite systems and their possibility to provide the global products such as clouds type and cover maps; Global Vegetation Index; Sea Surface Temperature; Earth Radiation Budget; ozone vertical profiles as well as total ozone maps; snow and ice maps; temperature and moisture profiles used for climate monitoring, modelling and forecasting.
Satellite instruments providing climatological data
Autor: Izabela Dyras, Bożena Łapeta
Strony: 351-356
Summary - read more..
Since the launch of the first meteorological satellites in the sixties, climatology has gained a new source of the information about the atmosphere and ground surface especially from the scarcely populated areas as well as wide areas of the seas and oceans. The time span between the first and present satellite systems allows to follow the different atmospheric parameters change. The paper presents brief information concerning different satellite systems and their sensors. The spectral range characteristics and their usefulness for climatological purposes are discussed. Among the products derived from the collected data, the following are addressed: radiative budget, clouds climatology, atmospheric temperature and humidity, total ozone amount and trace gases concentration.
Regularities in the Polish temperature time series and climate prediction or reconstruction
Autor: Krzysztof Fortuniak
Strony: 357-364
Summary - read more..
In the paper regularities in the long Polish temperature records were investigated with the aid of wavelet analysis. The data consist of monthly mean temperatures from Warsaw, Cracow, Wrocław and Gdańsk from the beginning of 19th century. The analysis focuses on the regularities of the time scale from a few years to a few decades. The method allows to precisely detect regular fluctuation in the time series: their frequency and persistence. Results show that the regular fluctuations in the temperature time series (like quasi-seven-year or quasi-five-year cycles) raise and vanish in quite uneven manner. The wave usually disappears after a few oscillations. Such waves are detected by classical spectral analysis as the strongest periodicities. However, they are not stable in time and thus can not be directly used for realistic climate prediction and reconstruction.
Examples of reconstructions of Polish climate by GCMS and projections for future
Autor: Małgorzata Liszewska
Strony: 365-372
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In recent years great efforts have been made to develop climate modelling. The most sophisticated tools to simulate the behaviour of the ocean and atmosphere over time are general circulation models. The new centre IPCC DDC has been recently established to co-ordinate the distribution of data resulting from many climate simulation experiments provided by the world climate centres. Several countries carry out analyses of data available from the DDC for their regions. The present work is a part of such an analysis for Poland.
Forecasts of the morphogenetic processes' evolution in Poland
Autor: Józef Edward Mojski
Strony: 373-378
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According to the global climate change forecastss the quantitative evaluations of climate change for Poland in next 100 years are presented. Their impact on the evolution of the Vistula River valley is estimated, separately for upper, middle and lower river course. In the upper course more debris will be transported from the Carpathians to their foreland zone. In the middle course there will be growing tendency of the anastomosing river beds development and the earthslides might become more frequent, while in the lower course the uplift of the erosion base will probably occur
Variability of the atmospheric circulation above Central Europe in the light of selected indices
Autor: Tadeusz Niedźwiedź
Strony: 379-390
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The study presents variability of different circulation indices above Central Europe for the long period 1873, September-2000, February. For that purpose some synthesis in the materials dealing with the frequencies of 21 different circulation types had to be done. The results have been obtained using the simple circulation indices P (progression or W - westerly zonal), S (southerly meridional), C (cyclonicity) as proposed by R. Murray and R. Lewis with further modifications. The author calculated these indices for the year and the particular seasons. The most important is the W index. For the investigated area its mean value reaches 119. The largest intensity of the westerly flow was observed during 3 periods: 1891-1904, 1924-1932 and from 1983 to 1994. The highest annual values were noticed in 1990 (245) and in 1899 (239). The negative values which point the prevalence of the easterly advection frequency have been notified only in: 1963 (-41), 1972 (-7) and 1996 (-18). That index is very well correlated with the winter temperature. The W index is very well correlated with the most important for Europe, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.
An attempt to determine the changes of the circulation seasons presented upon the example of the Upper Vistula River basin
Autor: Marek Nowosad
Strony: 391-396
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On the basis of the calendar of atmospheric circulation types, drawn up by T. Niedźwiedź, the year has been divided into circulation seasons. The division has been done for the long-term period 1874-1990, as well as separately for its parts: 1874-1910, 1911-1950, 1951-1990. Distinguishing circulation seasons for the period 1951-1990, together with a detailed description of the method, was published earlier (Nowosad 1998a). For individual long-term periods circulation seasons have been obtained, differing clearly by their opening and closing dates as well as their duration.
Mezoscale heat and water balance structure under present and future climate conditions - catchment case study in southern part of Germany
Autor: Janusz Olejnik, Frank Eulenstein, Matthias Willms
Strony: 397-406
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The heat and water balance components of the Main River catchment were estimated with the use of MBC model and the results are discussed in this paper. The input data set used in this study consists of 30 years meteorological and land-use data (from 1958 to 1987). The runoff data obtained from measurement station were used for verification of the results obtained by the use of the MBC model under present climatic condition. After verification, the MBC model was run again, but this time the present climatic data were replaced by future climatic data (obtained from GCM), and additionally some scenarios of changes in land-use structure were included. The analysis showed that under future climatic conditions and without land-use changes, runoff of the Main River catchment could increase of about 30% in comparison with present conditions. The impact of land-use and climatic condition changes on heat and water balances of the catchment is discussed in the paper.
The method of estimation of Bowen ratio areal distribution by parameterization based on meteorological and land-use data
Autor: Janusz Olejnik, Jacek Leśny, Andrzej Kędziora
Strony: 407-414
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New empirical equations for Bowen ratio estimation are discussed. The Bowen ratio parameterisation is based on some meteorological data (global radiation, temperature, saturation water pressure deficit and wind speed). Because of the set of input data this method can be used for Bowen ratio estimation under present climate condition and also can be coupled with GCMs results about future climate conditions. The parameterization can be used for estimation of areal distribution of heat balance components if land-use data are available. An example of modelled areal distribution of Bowen ratio using meteorological data from 1993 was shown.
Comparison of mean sea level pressure from GCMS against re-analysis for Central Europe
Autor: Marzena Osuch
Strony: 415-422
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The paper presents results of comparison of GCMs against the NCEP re-analysis for the Central European (5-40oE, 40-60oN) area. The analysis has been performed for mean sea level pressure from the period 1960-1989. Comparisons of means, variances and spatial patterns are presented.
On intensity and recurrence of droughts in the forest-steppe and steppe zones
Autor: Nadezhda A. Shumova
Strony: 423-428
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Presented are the general estimates of the crop water supply which are determined by the value of the ratio ET/ETO, where ET is the actual transpiration, and ETO is the potential transpiration. The evapotranspiration model with standard meteorological data and leaf area index are used to obtain the crop water supply. The crop water supply was analyzed for large scale spatial trends over many years for the spring wheat fields represented by 45 agrometeorological stations in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the former Soviet Union. For 6 agrometeorological stations the crop water supply for individual years within a period over 20 years was examined. The calculation showed that the droughts are uniformly distributed in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the former Soviet Union and differ only in intensity for different areas of the zones in question.
Role of the index of vertical changeability of wind in the dynamics of macro-, meso- and topoclimate of the Baltic sea shore
Autor: Jerzy Andrzej Trapp, Andrzej Wyszkowski, Michał Marosz
Strony: 429-436
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Several circulation indices in different spatial scales and at different levels are calculated for the area: 20oW-30oE, 50oN-70oN. The relationship between the zonal circulation index and the spatial variability of the regional indices at different levels (925, 700, 500 hPa) is then established for the chosen period of sequential changes of the zonal circulation index with the usage of the correlation and time series analysis. Afterwards, their role in the reaction of the temperature field (at 925 hPa) over the Baltic Sea Basin was investigated.